Modeling dynamics of infant obesity in the region of Valencia, Spain

In this paper we present a finite-time 3–5 years old childhood obesity model to study the evolution of obesity in the next years in the Spanish region of Valencia. After a statistical study, it can be seen that sociocultural characteristics determine the nutritional habits and the unhealthy ones such as high frequency of consumption of bakery, fried meals and soft drinks (BFS), which are prevalent factors in childhood obesity. This analysis allows us to consider obesity as a disease of social transmission caused by high frequency consumption of BFS and to build a mathematical model of epidemiological type to study the childhood obesity evolution. The parameters of the model using data from surveys related to obesity in the Spanish region of Valencia are computed adjusting the model to real data of the years 1999 and 2002. Furthermore the simulation shows an increasing trend of childhood obesity in the following years. c © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.